Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.352829 0.408010 0.467932 0.537700 0.616556 0.702775 0.804033
2025-06-15 0.279307 0.352756 0.438722 0.546243 0.676554 0.828769 1.019380
2025-06-22 0.207796 0.286103 0.384657 0.516622 0.687349 0.899278 1.180557
2025-06-29 0.159209 0.238656 0.345976 0.499379 0.710435 0.987634 1.375653
2025-07-06 0.121718 0.198685 0.310208 0.480111 0.728091 1.071646 1.577058
2025-07-13 0.100386 0.177622 0.297128 0.490208 0.787542 1.219648 1.883927
2025-07-20 0.080454 0.154492 0.276851 0.486367 0.826338 1.343683 2.173052
2025-07-27 0.066786 0.138762 0.265421 0.494463 0.884574 1.503782 2.534898
2025-08-03 0.055997 0.125686 0.256019 0.504334 0.947076 1.678043 2.938828
2025-08-10 0.043595 0.106371 0.231672 0.483908 0.955594 1.766583 3.216518
2025-08-17 0.033125 0.088138 0.205516 0.455315 0.945184 1.821813 3.445075
2025-08-24 0.026548 0.076656 0.190428 0.445261 0.967051 1.934999 3.784314
2025-08-31 0.021052 0.066326 0.176084 0.435356 0.990316 2.058150 4.163727
2025-09-07 0.018038 0.061466 0.173064 0.449268 1.063653 2.283576 4.754665
2025-09-14 0.013872 0.051879 0.156440 0.429567 1.064419 2.370654 5.097871
2025-09-21 0.010978 0.044945 0.144708 0.418944 1.083127 2.495519 5.527569
2025-09-28 0.008591 0.038614 0.132859 0.405542 1.093464 2.604547 5.937801
2025-10-05 0.007391 0.035947 0.130711 0.416725 1.162722 2.844965 6.637803
2025-10-12 0.006076 0.032223 0.124373 0.415362 1.201621 3.024329 7.228957
2025-10-19 0.005200 0.029878 0.121758 0.423978 1.266787 3.269110 7.982306
2025-10-26 0.004482 0.027865 0.119696 0.433861 1.336796 3.532440 8.800093
2025-11-02 0.003481 0.023893 0.109535 0.416965 1.333438 3.625291 9.250659
2025-11-09 0.002603 0.019918 0.097928 0.392651 1.305702 3.656733 9.565609